Forecast of Long-term Electricity Consumption of the Industrial Sub-sector of Pulp and Paper in Brazil Using a Bottom-up Approach

The subsector of pulp and paper presented in 2013 an electric power consumption of 9.3% of electricity consumption in the industrial sector in Brazil. It experienced a significant growth of production in the last 20 years, exceeding 160%, and their consumption of electricity increased by 130%, reaching the level of 19,594GWh. Due to its characteristics, with a known structure and production processes, and its importance in the country's industrial sector, this subsector was selected for study in this paper, to evaluate the behavior of its long-term annual electricity demand, at the horizon of 20 years ahead, in energy efficiency scenarios through bottom-up approach. This approach is data intensive and requires data with good quality; it consists of a hierarchical structure that enables to check how specific actions can affect the results at each level and its effect on higher levels.