Towards Ensemble Simulation of Complex Systems

The paper presents an early-stage research which is aimed towards the development of comprehensive conceptual and technological framework for ensemble-based simulation of complex systems. The concept of multi-layer ensemble is presented as a background for further development of the framework to cover different kind of ensembles: ensemble of system's state, data ensemble, and models ensemble. Formal description of a hybrid model is provided as a core concept for ensemble-based complex system simulation. The example of water level forecasting application is used to show selected ensemble classes covered by the proposed framework.