The Evaluation of Default Risk: An Empirical Analysis on the White Wine Supply Chain

In supply chain system, due to the connected transactions among supply chain enterprises, the default risk for supply chain enterprises becomes more complicated and is difficult to evaluate. So how to evaluate the default risk for supply chain is an urgent and important task in practice and theory. In this paper, we define supply chain enterprise default risk is comprised of spontaneous default risk and contagious default risk. First, by constructing an evaluation indicator system for the supply chain enterprise default risk, we measure the spontaneous default risk using Fuzzy Preference Relations. Second, we construct a risk numerical matrix based on the degree of influence of the contagious default risk, and then analyze the cumulative effect of the contagious default risk and measure contagious default risk by matrix analysis combined with the spontaneous default risk. Finally, we provide a case study where we apply the model to measure the default risk in the supply chain in order to demonstrate its practical value.