The exploration on the trade preferences of cooperation partners in four energy commodities' international trade: Crude oil, coal, natural gas and photovoltaic

The aim of our research is to explore whether the countries' local trade pattern can reflect their preferences of selecting trade partners in different commodity's markets. Considering of the energy and their alternative ones of daily use and power generation, we choose four energy commodities to make comparisons: crude oil, coal, natural gas and photovoltaic (PV). We use complex network and link prediction to explore local trade pattern, make projections based on 2014 data and approve them by 2015 data. We find that the international PV trade involves much denser cooperation among countries than other three commodities. Certain links, such as that between Canada and France-owned islands, are key paths for other countries to establish further trade cooperation. In addition, interestingly, high number of common trade partners promote two countries to establish fossil energy trade cooperation. However, for the global PV trade market, each country's production capacity becomes a preferential element for further cooperation. Projections about potential trade links and core patterns are estimated. Governments can develop traditional energy with more triangle-shaped cooperation, while they can promote renewable energy cooperation by increasing the number of trade channels. Future cooperation can be estimated based on trade preferences in different markets.