Effects of supply chain structure and biomass prices on bioenergy feedstock supply

This study assesses the supply of switchgrass and miscanthus, in Ontario, Canada, under different biomass prices and supply chain structures, using an integrated economic, biophysical and GIS model, to assess bioenergy policy. In a local, domestic supply chain, 4 million tonnes of baled biomass production per year becomes attractive for transport to the Nanticoke Generation Station at $69/t. For a larger scale export supply chain to Rotterdam in the form of biomass pellets aggregated on the farm, 20 million tonnes of production becomes attractive at approximately $198/t. For an export supply chain with aggregation at the major ports of Ontario, 20 million tonnes of baled biomass product is attractive for shipping to ports, with pellets subsequently transported to Rotterdam, at around $137/t. Higher bale transportation costs mean that agricultural lands closer to ports, but with lower yields, are preferred compared to the on-farm aggregation scenario. Given government incentives to ease the transition between annual and perennial crops and an actual realized demand from the Nanticoke Generation Station for biomass, this supply chain scenario is plausible. However, export scenarios are not attractive due to infrastructure constraints from current pellet processing capacity, and volatile international energy and commodity markets.