Greenhouse gas emissions of motor vehicles in Chinese cities and the implication for China's mitigation targets

Along with rapid development of economy, urbanization and industrialization in China, the transportation sector especially road transport accounts for the quickest growth of energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions across the country. This paper selects four representative cities (Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Chongqing) in the north, east, south, and west of China as targets of case study. It predicts future motor vehicle population in various cities using the Gompertz Model, and predicts and analyzes fuel consumption and GHG emissions of different types of motor vehicles in the case cities by 2035. The results indicate that besides gasoline and diesel, in the future uses of various types of vehicle fuels will follow different patterns among these four cities due to diverse resources endowment, economic strength, technology levels and geographical features. Based on predicted vehicle population and fuel consumption, it is found that from 2013 to 2035, GHG emissions from tank to wheel (TTW) and well to wheel (WTW) in all cities will continuously increase yet at different rates. If there is no interference from new policies, around 2020 Chongqing is expected to replace Beijing as the city with the highest volume of GHG emissions of vehicles among four case study cities. Therefore, the four cities especially Chongqing need urgently to develop or adjust low-carbon policies in road transportation sector, in order to achieve China's future greenhouse gas reduction targets. Some policy implications to reduce GHG emissions of the road transportation sectors of the case cities are suggested based on the analysis results.