کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
4916973 | 1362738 | 2017 | 13 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Short-term power load probability density forecasting method using kernel-based support vector quantile regression and Copula theory
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کلمات کلیدی
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه
مهندسی انرژی
مهندسی انرژی و فناوری های برق
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
چکیده انگلیسی
Penetration of smart grid prominently increases the complexity and uncertainty in scheduling and operation of power systems. Probability density forecasting methods can effectively quantify the uncertainty of power load forecasting. The paper proposes a short-term power load probability density forecasting method using kernel-based support vector quantile regression (KSVQR) and Copula theory. As the kernel function can influence the prediction performance, three kernel functions are compared in this work to select the best one for the learning target. The paper evaluates the accuracy of the prediction intervals considering two criteria, prediction interval coverage probability (PICP) and prediction interval normalized average width (PINAW). Considering uncertainty factors and the correlation of explanatory variables for power load prediction accuracy are of great importance. A probability density forecasting method based on Copula theory is proposed in order to achieve the relational diagram of electrical load and real-time price. The electrical load forecast accuracy of the proposed method is assessed by means of real datasets from Singapore. The simulation results show that the proposed method has great potential for power load forecasting by selecting appropriate kernel function for KSVQR model.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Applied Energy - Volume 185, Part 1, 1 January 2017, Pages 254-266
Journal: Applied Energy - Volume 185, Part 1, 1 January 2017, Pages 254-266
نویسندگان
Yaoyao He, Rui Liu, Haiyan Li, Shuo Wang, Xiaofen Lu,