کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
496778 862870 2011 11 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
A new prediction strategy for price spike forecasting of day-ahead electricity markets
کلمات کلیدی
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه مهندسی کامپیوتر نرم افزارهای علوم کامپیوتر
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
A new prediction strategy for price spike forecasting of day-ahead electricity markets
چکیده انگلیسی
Price spikes are distinctive aspects of electricity price impacting its forecast accuracy. Electricity price spikes can also have serious economical effects on the market participants. However, prediction of electricity price spikes is a complex task and most of current electricity price forecast methods focus on prediction of normal prices. In this paper, a new forecast strategy for prediction of both occurrence and value of electricity price spikes is presented. The proposed strategy has a novel feature selection technique based on information theoretic criteria to select a minimum subset of the most informative features for the forecast process. Also, the strategy includes a new closed loop prediction mechanism composed of probabilistic neural network (PNN) and hybrid neuro-evolutionary system (HNES) forecast engines. The effectiveness of the proposed forecast strategy for the prediction of both price spike occurrence and value is extensively evaluated by the real-life data of PJM (Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland) electricity market. The obtained results confirm the validity of the developed approach.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Applied Soft Computing - Volume 11, Issue 6, September 2011, Pages 4246-4256
نویسندگان
, ,