Computational modeling issues and methods for the “regulatory problem” in engineering – Solution to the thermal problem

Many of the problems addressed through engineering analysis include a set of regulatory (or other) probabilistic requirements that must be demonstrated with some degree of confidence through the analysis. Problems cast in this environment can pose new challenges for computational analyses in both model validation and model-based prediction. The “regulatory problems” given for the “Sandia challenge problems exercise”, while relatively simple, provide an opportunity to demonstrate methods that address these challenges. This paper describes and illustrates a method for prediction in situations where extrapolation is involved. Specifically, we discuss methodology for compensating for computational/experimental discrepancies identified in the validation analysis. This includes the description of an approach that can be applied when the required prediction involves extrapolation along axes that are difficult to express in Euclidian space (different structures, for example). These methods are illustrated using the Sandia thermal challenge problem.