Low-ILUC-risk ethanol from Hungarian maize

Indirect land use change (ILUC) is a serious threat to the sustainability of bioenergy because of the extra GHG emissions (and other environmental impacts) it causes when feedstock production diverts other agricultural production and causes expansion onto high carbon stock lands. However, multiple measures exist to reduce the risk of ILUC. But these measures and their potential to mitigate ILUC are not yet well understood. Therefore, we assessed the ILUC-mitigation potential under three scenarios for possible developments in agricultural production and supply chains for a case study on maize production in Hungary for ethanol. Our results show that ILUC-risk mitigation is possible in all three scenarios: agricultural land demand is reduced by 3500-16000 km2 in 2020 compared to the current situation (6-29% of the agricultural area). This surplus land, is not needed anymore for food and feed production and can be used for biomass production for energy at a low risk of causing ILUC. For example, when maize is cultivated and converted to ethanol, this surplus land can provide 22-138 PJ of ethanol. This is equivalent to 10-60% of the projected 2020 transport energy use in Hungary. Yield improvements of maize, other crops and livestock contributed most (55-90%) to this low-ILUC-risk potential. To sustainably increase productivity and efficiency in the entire agricultural sector, an integrated approach to food and fuel (as well as other non-food) production is needed. Thereby, ILUC risk can be mitigated and is not an irreversible fact as often presented in previous studies.