Opinions on contested energy infrastructures: An empirically based simulation approach

The dynamics of opinions are seldom investigated in detail in public opinion research because of the difficulty in capturing long-term changes with classical empirical methods. Agent-based modeling (ABM) promises a solution for combining (structural) theories and temporally explicit models while also considering social interaction. In this paper we operationalize and formalize the theoretical assumptions of the social judgment theory concerning opinion changes. Moreover, to link the ABM to a real case, we investigated opinions on the contested infrastructure of deep geological repositories in Switzerland with a longitudinal online questionnaire. The questionnaire results serve as initialization data for the model. The simulation results show the agents' opinions in a disaggregated way and reveal their heterogeneous development over time. The implications for a successful research cycle comprising theorizing, modeling, and empirical data acquisition are discussed.