The difference in foresight using the scanning method between experts and non-experts

- We examined scenario generation on near future using the scanning method.
- We examined the difference in generated scenarios between scanning method experts and non-experts.
- We found that experts referred to more diverse sources of information in generating scenario than non-experts.
- We discuss the relationship between the present findings and previous findings on divergent thinking.

We examined the factors that produce differences in generating scenarios on the near future using the scanning method. Participants were asked to briefly read (scan) 151 articles about new technology, the latest customs, fashion, social change, value system transition, or emerging social problems, and then to generate three scenarios about the near future based on the articles. We compared the generated scenarios between scanning method experts and non-experts with no prior experience with the scanning method. We found that experts generated more unique scenarios than non-experts did, and that experts and non-experts differed in the diversity of articles referenced when generating scenarios. We discuss the relationship between the present findings and previous findings on divergent thinking.