کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
5037132 1472386 2017 17 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Enabling technologies, lifecycle transitions, and industrial systems in technology foresight: Insights from advanced materials FTA
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی مدیریت، کسب و کار و حسابداری کسب و کار و مدیریت بین المللی
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
Enabling technologies, lifecycle transitions, and industrial systems in technology foresight: Insights from advanced materials FTA
چکیده انگلیسی


- Structure from other literatures can enhance FTA for emerging technologies.
- Categories explored: technology types, lifecycle transitions, industrial structure
- These categories are real, but receive varied attention in advanced materials FTA.
- They help FTA apply innovation system concepts by drawing out system failures.
- Point to enabling technology, transition, and industrial absorptive capability gaps.

This paper investigates opportunities to enhance Future-oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) of emerging technologies within innovation systems. We address key challenges faced by policymakers developing innovation strategies for emerging technologies. In particular, we explore ways that FTA might be structured to investigate the complex innovation system journeys of novel technologies as they are developed, diffused, and deployed. In doing this, we draw on concepts from technology and operations management and related literatures to more carefully characterise the: (1) 'technical infrastrucutre' required to develop emerging technologies; (2) key technology transitions involved in diffusion; and (3) complex industrial value networks into which they may eventually get deployed.We investigate the extent to which these categories are already used within national technology foresight exercises. In particular, we review over 240 international FTA-related policy, strategy, and analysis documents for 'advanced materials'. We find that - although generally used inconsistently and unsystematically within FTA - these categories repeatedly emerge as important elements in many policies, strategies, and underpinning foresight exercises. We conclude by arguing that these categories should be carefully considered in initial FTA design. And that, by doing so, FTA exercises may better reveal potential 'innovation system failures' and help policymakers coordinate policy actions in response.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Technological Forecasting and Social Change - Volume 115, February 2017, Pages 261-277
نویسندگان
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