کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
5066480 1476784 2016 19 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Forecasting unemployment across countries: The ins and outs
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
پیش بینی نرخ بیکاری در سراسر کشور: وام و بیرون
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی اقتصاد، اقتصادسنجی و امور مالی اقتصاد و اقتصادسنجی
چکیده انگلیسی

This paper evaluates the flow approach to unemployment forecasting proposed by Barnichon and Nekarda (2012) for a set of OECD countries characterized by very different labor markets. We find that the flow approach yields substantial improvements in forecast accuracy over professional forecasts for all countries, with especially large improvements at longer horizons (one-year ahead forecasts) for European countries. Moreover, the flow approach has the highest predictive ability during recessions and turning points, when unemployment forecasts are most valuable.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: European Economic Review - Volume 84, May 2016, Pages 165-183
نویسندگان
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