کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
5066787 1476791 2015 17 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Exit polls, turnout, and bandwagon voting: Evidence from a natural experiment
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
خروج از نظرسنجی ها، شرکت در انتخابات و رأی دادن به رای دهندگان: شواهدی از آزمایش طبیعی
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی اقتصاد، اقتصادسنجی و امور مالی اقتصاد و اقتصادسنجی
چکیده انگلیسی

We exploit a voting reform in France to estimate the causal effect of exit poll information on turnout and bandwagon voting. Before the change in legislation, individuals in some French overseas territories voted after the election result had already been made public via exit poll information from mainland France. We estimate that knowing the exit poll information decreases voter turnout by about 11 percentage points. Our study is the first clean empirical design outside of the laboratory to demonstrate the effect of such knowledge on voter turnout. Furthermore, we find that exit poll information significantly increases bandwagon voting; that is, voters who choose to turn out are more likely to vote for the expected winner.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: European Economic Review - Volume 77, July 2015, Pages 65-81
نویسندگان
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