Fertility choice, mortality expectations, and interdependent preferences-An empirical analysis

- We model the impact of mortality expectations and interdependent preferences on fertility.
- Mortality expectations have a larger effect on fertility than experienced child mortality.
- Interdependent preferences have an amplifying effect on the impact of mortality on fertility.
- Social spillovers are stronger in the early phase of the demographic transition.
- With social spillovers a decrease in child mortality has no effect on the rate of population growth.

We investigate the empirical relationship between child mortality and fertility across 46 low and middle income countries. Specifically, we model the effect of mortality expectations and interdependent fertility preferences on fertility. The direct marginal effect of mortality expectations on fertility is larger than zero but less than unity. This implies that a decrease in mortality rates leads to a decrease in children born but to an increase in the number of surviving children and hence the rate of population growth. Taking into account interdependent fertility preferences, whereby an individual's fertility choice affects the fertility decisions of others, the marginal effect of mortality expectations on fertility becomes one. Hence, if we allow for both mortality expectations and the amplifying effect of interdependent fertility preferences, a decrease in child mortality has no net effect on the rate of population growth.