کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
5067022 1476810 2013 13 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Natural disasters and the effect of trade on income: A new panel IV approach
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
بلایای طبیعی و تاثیر تجارت بر درآمد: رویکرد پانل چهارم جدید
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی اقتصاد، اقتصادسنجی و امور مالی اقتصاد و اقتصادسنجی
چکیده انگلیسی

Natural disasters affect bilateral trade. We use this fact to generalize the instrumental variables strategy of Frankel and Romer (1999) to a panel setup. This allows revisiting an old question: Does openness cause per capita GDP? We work with a modified gravity framework in which we interact foreign natural disasters with geography. Predicting the exogenous component of bilateral trade flows and aggregating over trade partners, we obtain a time-varying instrument for multilateral openness of a country. Controlling for constant determinants of income (history, geography) by means of fixed effects, we find a robust positive effect of trade on income. Averaging 0.74, the estimated elasticity is substantially smaller than the one obtained in the cross-section. Poor or non-OECD countries feature a larger elasticity.

► Foreign natural disasters interacted by geography predict bilateral trade changes. ► Aggregation yields a time-varying exogenous instrument for openness. ► The instrument works well in panel regressions explaining countries' income. ► Estimated income-elasticities are much smaller than in usual cross-section. ► The effect of trade on income is larger in poor or non-OECD countries.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: European Economic Review - Volume 58, February 2013, Pages 18-30
نویسندگان
, ,