کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
5067141 1372570 2012 20 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Commodity prices and growth: An empirical investigation
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی اقتصاد، اقتصادسنجی و امور مالی اقتصاد و اقتصادسنجی
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
Commodity prices and growth: An empirical investigation
چکیده انگلیسی

Whereas empirical evidence on the effect of higher commodity prices on the long-run growth of commodity exporters is ambiguous, time series analyses using vector autoregressive (VAR) models have found that commodity booms raise income in the short run. In this paper we adopt panel error correction methodology to analyze global data for 1963 to 2008 to disentangle the short and long run effects of international commodity prices on output per capita. Our results show that commodity booms have unconditional positive short-term effects on output, but non-agricultural booms in countries with poor governance have adverse long-term effects which dominate the short-run gains. Our findings have important implications for non-agricultural commodity exporters with poor governance, especially in light of the recent wave of resource discoveries in low-income countries.

► Using global data for 1963-2008, we estimate the effects of commodity prices on output per capita. ► Commodity booms have unconditional positive short-term effects on output. ► But non-agricultural booms in poor governance countries have adverse long-term effects. ► The findings have implications for non-agricultural commodity exporters with poor governance.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: European Economic Review - Volume 56, Issue 6, August 2012, Pages 1241-1260
نویسندگان
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