کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
5067707 1372623 2007 17 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
A time-varying “natural” rate of interest for the euro area
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی اقتصاد، اقتصادسنجی و امور مالی اقتصاد و اقتصادسنجی
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
A time-varying “natural” rate of interest for the euro area
چکیده انگلیسی

We estimate a time-varying “natural” rate of interest (TVNRI) for a synthetic euro area over the period 1979Q1-2004Q4 using a small macroeconomic model, broadly following a methodology developed by Laubach and Williams [2003. Measuring the natural rate of interest. The Review of Economics and Statistics 85(4), 1063-1070] for the United States. The Kalman filter simultaneously estimates the output gap and the natural rate of interest. Our identifying assumptions include a close relationship between the TVNRI and the low-frequency fluctuations of potential output growth. The difference between the real rate of interest and its estimated natural level offers valuable insights into the monetary policy stance over the last two decades and a half.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: European Economic Review - Volume 51, Issue 7, October 2007, Pages 1768-1784
نویسندگان
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