Testing for asymmetric causality between U.S. equity returns and commodity futures returns

- We investigate the links between U.S. equity returns and commodity futures returns.
- We use a framework that accounts for seasonal effects on commodity returns.
- Asymmetry plays an important role in these two-way around relationships.
- This asymmetry seems to be more relevant since 2000 than in the nineties.
- The asymmetric linkages are observed both for nominal and real returns.

This paper examines the causal relationships between the U.S. equity returns and the returns of energy, metal and agricultural commodity futures. Using an analytical framework that accounts for seasonal effects on commodity returns, we find that asymmetry plays an important role in these two-way around relationships. This asymmetry seems to be more relevant since 2000 than in the nineties, and the asymmetric linkages are observed both when returns are measured in nominal and real terms.