Are emerging MENA stock markets mean reverting? A Monte Carlo simulation

- This paper provides further evidence on the mean reversion hypothesis for ten countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) using a battery of panel and time series econometric tests including Monte Carlo simulations.
- Standard unit root and panel unit root tests indicate that stock prices in the MENA region are not mean reverting which is consistent with the weak form efficient market hypothesis. However, Monte Carlo simulations depict mean reversion in the stock markets of Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Bahrain.
- Portfolio managers can now forecast future movements in stock prices based on past behavior and develop trading strategies to earn abnormal returns in each of Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Bahrain.

We provide further empirical evidence on the mean reversion hypothesis for ten frontier stock markets in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) using a battery of panel and time series econometric tests including Monte Carlo simulations. Standard unit root and panel unit root tests indicate that stock prices in the MENA region are not mean reverting which is consistent with the weak form efficient market hypothesis. However, Monte Carlo simulations depict mean reversion in the stock markets of Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Bahrain.