Food security implications of staple food substitution in Sahelian West Africa

- Supply shocks set off bidding wars, which the rural & urban poor almost always lose.
- Droughts most hurt the rural poor; spikes in world rice prices most hurt the urban poor.
- Increasing regional food trade is the most powerful tool to offset these impacts.
- Increasing the substitutability among food staples helps moderate the impacts.
- Targeted income assistance needs to complement greater trade and substitutability.

Low-income households in Sahelian West Africa face multiple shocks that risk compressing their already-low food consumption levels. This paper develops a multi-market simulation model to evaluate the impact of common production and world-price shocks on food consumption of vulnerable groups in Sahelian West Africa. Empirical analysis confirms that poor households bear the brunt of ensuing consumption risks, particularly in closed markets, where trade barriers restrict imports, and the poor find themselves in a bidding war with richer consumers for limited food supplies. In the absence of trade, a drought that reduces domestic rainfed cereal production by 20% would compress already low calorie consumption of the rural poor by as much as 15%, four times as much as other household groups. Conversely, a 50% spike in world rice prices hits the urban poor hardest, compressing calorie consumption by up to 8%.Policy responses need to focus on two basic mechanisms that can help to moderate this pressure - consumer substitution among staple foods and trade. Immediately south of the Sahel, coastal West African countries enjoy higher rainfall, dual rainy seasons, more stable staple food production based on root crops (cassava and yams) as well as frequent double cropping of maize.Our simulation results suggest that regional trade in maize, yams and cassava-based prepared foods like gari and attieké could fill over one-third of the consumption shortfall resulting from a major drought in the Sahel. Increasing substitutability across starchy staples, for example through expansion of maize, cassava and sorghum-based convenience foods, would further moderate consumption pressure by expanding the array of food alternatives and hence supply responses available during periods of stress.