Projected demand and supply for various foods in West Africa: Implications for investments and food policy

- Potential food demand-supply gaps in West Africa through 2040 are identified.
- Despite growing production, shortfalls in rice and other starchy staples likely to continue.
- Production/demand imbalances will increase for meat, dairy products, fruits and vegetables.
- Urban food demand will grow two to four times faster than rural demand.
- More fluid regional trade could help countries cope with these challenges.

This paper (a) summarizes recent evidence of changes in dietary patterns in the 15 ECOWAS countries of West Africa over the past 30 years and the forces driving those changes (In this paper, the term “West Africa” refers to the 15 countries that are members of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS): Benin, Burkina Faso, Cape Verde, Côte d'Ivoire, The Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, and Togo); (b) uses expenditure-elasticity estimates derived from budget-consumption studies in 8 of these countries (Burkina Faso, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, and Togo) and hypotheses about alternative income growth trajectories to develop scenarios about the evolution of demand for various foods over the period 2010-2040; (c) compares the projected demand growth with projection of production growth in key commodities to identify potential or increasing demand-supply gaps; and (d) derives implications for needed investments and policies regarding different commodities and components of the West African agrifood system, including identifying gaps in the current African Union-led Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development (CAADP) programs. The analysis shows that in absolute terms, production shortfalls relative to demand for starchy staples (particularly rice and wheat) will continue to pose a major challenge for ECOWAS countries. In relative terms, however, imbalances between domestic production and demand will increase more quickly for foods with high income-elasticities of demand, such as meat, dairy products, seafood, fruits and vegetables and vegetable oils. Urban demand will grow two to four times faster than rural demand, depending on the commodity, putting increased pressure on already stressed urban food marketing systems. Substantial variations in supply-demand gaps across countries suggest that more fluid regional trade could help individual countries cope with these challenges. The findings also suggest that the focus of food policies in West Africa, historically on starchy staples (particularly cereals) needs to broaden to include a range of higher-value products for which demand is likely to increase very rapidly in the near future.