Rethinking the global food crisis: The role of trade shocks

► US and Thai monthly export data used to re-examine causes of global food crisis. ► Export restrictions and demand surges explain nearly all of surge in rice prices. ► Droughts, export restrictions and demand surges a major factor in wheat markets. ► Trade shocks even a major factor for maize, and soybean prices followed maize prices in the future more emphasis should be placed on trade-based policy solutions.