Scenarios of the organic food market in Europe

Scenario analysis is a qualitative tool for strategic policy analysis that enables researchers and policymakers to support decision making, and a systemic analysis of the main determinants of a business or sector. In this study, a scenario analysis is developed regarding the future development of the market of organic food products in Europe. The scenario follows a participatory approach, exploiting potential interactions among the relevant driving forces, as selected by experts. Network analysis is used to identify the roles of driving forces in the different scenarios, and the results are discussed in comparison with the main findings from existing scenarios on the future development of the organic sector.

► We use scenario analysis to study potential future development of the organic food market in Europe. ► Network analysis is used to identify the roles of driving forces in the different scenarios. ► The results are benchmarked with findings from previous scenarios on the future development of the organic sector. ► Scenario analysis can supplement information derived from more conventional modelling sources. ► Our scenarios support the crucial role of agricultural policy and general economic trends for the future of organic farming.