The impact of CAP reform on farmers' plans for the future: Some evidence from South West England

This paper considers farmer intentions following the implementation of the 2003 CAP reforms, identifies the extent to which these plans have been influenced by the introduction of the Single Payment Scheme (SPS) in 2005 and considers the implications in terms of likely structural change (i.e. changes in the deployment of land, labour and capital). The analysis uses data from a large sample survey of farmers in South West England and the results indicate that CAP reform is not stimulating rapid agricultural restructuring, rather it appears to be reinforcing many existing trends towards diversification and an increasing polarisation between the largest and smallest farms. CAP reform is impacting unevenly on the farm community and different farming situations are associated with different types of reaction. Market signals may become a more powerful driver of farmer behaviour, in which case the 2003 reforms will have proved successful in providing farmers the freedom to farm without coupled subsidies. On the basis of the results presented in this paper though, only a minority of farmers seem both well placed and well disposed to exploit such opportunities.