Even the losers get lucky sometimes: New products and the evolution of music quality since Napster

- We measure the evolution of music quality using comprehensive digital sales data.
- We show that music quality has increased worldwide since digitization.
- We explain this result with the unpredictability of quality and the growth in new releases.
- Products with modest prospects at release occupy a growing share of the top products.
- Despite growth in the number of products, sales are growing more concentrated.

Using comprehensive digital sales data by time and vintage on the US, Canada, and 15 European countries, we infer the evolution of music vintage quality, finding that vintage service flow has increased since 2000. We explain the result with unpredictability of music quality at the time of investment along with growing releases. Evidence shows (a) products with modest prospects at release, - from artists on independent labels and from new artists, - occupy a growing share of the top products; and (b) despite growth in the number of products, sales are growing more concentrated.