کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
507740 865142 2013 11 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
A spatio-temporal model for probabilistic seismic hazard zonation of Tehran
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه مهندسی کامپیوتر نرم افزارهای علوم کامپیوتر
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
A spatio-temporal model for probabilistic seismic hazard zonation of Tehran
چکیده انگلیسی


• Using time-dependent recurrence relationships for active faults.
• Integrating seismic hazards posed by faults and background seismicity in a PSHA.
• Capturing epistemic uncertainty in PSHA using a logic tree approach.
• Generating probabilistic seismic hazard maps of Tehran for a 50 years life cycle.

A precondition for all disaster management steps, building damage prediction, and construction code developments is a hazard assessment that shows the exceedance probabilities of different ground motion levels at a site considering different near- and far-field earthquake sources. The seismic sources are usually categorized as time-independent area sources and time-dependent fault sources. While the earlier incorporates the small and medium events, the later takes into account only the large characteristic earthquakes. In this article, a probabilistic approach is proposed to aggregate the effects of time-dependent and time-independent sources on seismic hazard. The methodology is then applied to generate three probabilistic seismic hazard maps of Tehran for 10%, 5%, and 2% exceedance probabilities in 50 years. The results indicate an increase in peak ground acceleration (PGA) values toward the southeastern part of the study area and the PGA variations are mostly controlled by the shear wave velocities across the city. In addition, the implementation of the methodology takes advantage of GIS capabilities especially raster-based analyses and representations. During the estimation of the PGA exceedance rates, the emphasis has been placed on incorporating the effects of different attenuation relationships and seismic source models by using a logic tree.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Computers & Geosciences - Volume 58, August 2013, Pages 8–18
نویسندگان
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