Supply chain risk at simultaneous robust perturbations

In the presented methodology, as a novelty first developed here, we show how the perturbation of intensity in production and logistics, simultaneous perturbations in the timing of financial flows, information flows, flows of items and market perturbations can be better evaluated simultaneously through Laplace transforms and the NPV expression which allow for a control of physical and financial flows simultaneously. Our paper follows the Davos 2013 conclusions analysed by Forbes that “To maintain effectiveness, supply chain managers can arrange to share strategic stocks, or to enter into joint supply agreements. They can also pre-arrange ways to access critical stocks”. Therefore risks should be evaluated on the level of the end-to-end supply chain, and not only on the level of the companies involved. The paper suggests that resilience of a chain is measured by the probability that the NPV of the chain will not fall under the critical value determined in advance, and the yearly mathematical reservations are derived.