کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
5079592 1477541 2015 17 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Aggregate planning and forecasting in make-to-order production systems
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
برنامه ریزی کامل و پیش بینی در سیستم های تولید به منظور تولید
کلمات کلیدی
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه سایر رشته های مهندسی مهندسی صنعتی و تولید
چکیده انگلیسی
We present a comprehensive HPP framework, which we use to investigate the impact of aggregate planning in a make-to-order (MTO) environment. The basic inputs for aggregate plans are market forecasts. Thus, we conduct experiments assuming different forecasting techniques. The planning problem is formulated as a linear mathematical model and solved to optimality by a standard optimization engine. A discrete-event simulation model is used to perform lower level planning steps and to mimic the shop floor where stochastic and nonlinear dependencies are considered. The performance of the system is evaluated based on service- and inventory levels. Real world data coming from the automotive supplier industry is used to define four demand scenarios. For each of them we compare the performance of the system with and without the inclusion of aggregate plans. If aggregate plans are used we assess the impact of different forecasting techniques. We analyze the results and give managerial recommendations. Our experiments show, for example, that in a setting of low capacity utilization, aggregate plans are rather unprofitable. Moreover, we observe that APP using time series forecasting techniques seems to be a good strategy if demand is highly volatile or resources are scarce.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: International Journal of Production Economics - Volume 170, Part B, December 2015, Pages 521-528
نویسندگان
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