Forecasting warranty claims considering dynamic over-dispersion

This paper presents a warranty claim forecasting approach that tackles the problem of the dynamic over-dispersion exhibited in warranty claims data. It considers the application of both mixed NHPP and Cox process models to warranty claims and assumes that the intensity of the mixed NHPP follows a gamma distribution and the intensity of the Cox process follows a gamma process. Warranty claim data collected from an electronics product manufacturer are used validate the models, which show that these models outperform conventional NHPP models.