کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
5106348 1481431 2017 16 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
A neglected dimension of good forecasting judgment: The questions we choose also matter
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
ابعاد غفلت از قضاوت پیش بینی خوب: مسائل مورد نظر ما نیز مهم است
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی مدیریت، کسب و کار و حسابداری کسب و کار و مدیریت بین المللی
چکیده انگلیسی
Forecasters are typically evaluated via proper scoring rules such as the Brier score. These scoring rules use only the reported forecasts for assessment, neglecting related variables such as the specific questions that a person chose to forecast. In this paper, we study whether information related to question selection influences our estimates of forecaster ability. In other words, do good and bad forecasters tend to select questions in different ways? If so, can we capitalize on these selections when estimating forecaster ability? We address these questions by extending a recently-developed psychometric model of forecasts to include question selection data. We compare the extended psychometric model to a simpler model, studying its unidimensionality assumption and highlighting the unique information that it can provide. We find that the model can make use of the fact that good forecasters tend to select more questions than bad forecasters, and we conclude that question selection data can be beneficial above and beyond reported forecasts. As a side benefit, the resulting model can potentially provide unique incentives for forecaster participation.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: International Journal of Forecasting - Volume 33, Issue 4, October–December 2017, Pages 817-832
نویسندگان
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