کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
5106386 | 1481434 | 2017 | 10 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Quantifiying blind spots and weak signals in executive judgment: A structured integration of expert judgment into the scenario development process
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موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی
مدیریت، کسب و کار و حسابداری
کسب و کار و مدیریت بین المللی
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چکیده انگلیسی
The integration of expert judgment is a fundamental pillar of most scenario planning processes. In particular, the systematic scanning of external expert opinions has been shown to be effective for the early detection of emerging threats and opportunities in an organization's environment. However, organizations tend to focus on internal advice more than on advice from external experts. This can be critical for organizations if it leads to an inertia in internal judgment, resulting in blind spots or a failure to see weak signals in the firm's periphery. In this article, we introduce a structured framework for the collection and structuring of internal and external expert judgment. This so-called 360â Stakeholder Feedback tool provides a structured and quantitative approach for the detection and discussion of blind spots and weak signals in scenario planning processes. Thus, it can contribute to a better and more holistic judgment in the strategic process. We demonstrate the methodology based on a case from the German construction industry, in which we aggregate and analyze expert judgments from different stakeholder groups regarding the future of the industry.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: International Journal of Forecasting - Volume 33, Issue 1, JanuaryâMarch 2017, Pages 244-253
Journal: International Journal of Forecasting - Volume 33, Issue 1, JanuaryâMarch 2017, Pages 244-253
نویسندگان
Philip Meissner, Christian Brands, Torsten Wulf,