کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
5111735 | 1483660 | 2017 | 39 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Learning and Bayesian updating in long cycle made-to-order (MTO) production
دانلود مقاله + سفارش ترجمه
دانلود مقاله ISI انگلیسی
رایگان برای ایرانیان
کلمات کلیدی
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی
مدیریت، کسب و کار و حسابداری
استراتژی و مدیریت استراتژیک
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله

چکیده انگلیسی
We model production planning for made-to-order (MTO) manufacturing by choosing production rate to minimize expected discounted cost incurred up to a promised delivery date. Products that are MTO are often unique and customized. The associated learning curve slope and other production parameters cannot be precisely estimated before production starts. In this paper, a dynamic and adaptive approach to estimate the effects of learning and to optimize next period production is developed. This approach offers a closed-loop solution through stochastic dynamic programming. Monthly production data are used to update the joint probability distributions of production parameters via Bayesian methods. Our approach is illustrated using historical earned-value data from the Black Hawk Helicopter Program. Managerial insights are obtained and discussed.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Omega - Volume 69, June 2017, Pages 29-42
Journal: Omega - Volume 69, June 2017, Pages 29-42
نویسندگان
K. Womer, H. Li, J. Camm, C. Osterman, R. Radhakrishnan,