کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
5124685 1488248 2017 6 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Crash rates analysis in China using a spatial panel model
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
تجزیه و تحلیل نرخ سقوط در چین با استفاده از یک مدل پانل فضایی
کلمات کلیدی
چین، نرخ سقوط، پانل فضایی، تاخیر فضایی، خطای خطا، حداکثر احتمال،
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی علوم اجتماعی تحقیقات ایمنی
چکیده انگلیسی


- Crash rates in a Chinese region do have an impact on those of its neighbors.
- The omission of neighborhood spillovers in traffic crash analysis produces bias estimates.
- Crash rates configuration tends to be similar between neighboring regions of mainland China.

The consideration of spatial externalities in traffic safety analysis is of paramount importance for the success of road safety policies. Yet, the quasi-totality of spatial dependence studies on crash rates is performed within the framework of single-equation spatial cross-sectional studies. The present study extends the spatial cross-sectional scheme to a spatial fixed-effects panel model estimated using the maximum likelihood method. The spatial units are the 31 administrative regions of mainland China over the period 2004-2013. The presence of neighborhood effects is evidenced through the Moran's I statistic. Consistent with previous studies, the analysis reveals that omitting the spatial effects in traffic safety analysis is likely to bias the estimation results. The spatial and error lags are all positive and statistically significant suggesting similarities of crash rates pattern in neighboring regions. Some other explanatory variables, such as freight traffic, the length of paved roads and the populations of age 65 and above are related to higher rates while the opposite trend is observed for the Gross Regional Product, the urban unemployment rate and passenger traffic.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: IATSS Research - Volume 41, Issue 3, October 2017, Pages 123-128
نویسندگان
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