کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
5126955 1488942 2017 26 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
A predictive-control framework to address bus bunching
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
یک چارچوب پیش بینی کنترل برای رسیدگی به اتوبوس
کلمات کلیدی
دسته بندی اتوبوس، عملیات حمل و نقل، پیش بینی سرنوشت، برگزاری پویا، کنترل پیش بینی،
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی علوم تصمیم گیری علوم مدیریت و مطالعات اجرایی
چکیده انگلیسی


- Predictive control for bus bunching.
- Data-driven prediction models based on operational data.
- Extend current control frameworks to include prediction data.
- Predictive models demonstrated on real-world data.
- Predictive model demonstrate on simulated data showing value of including predictions.

Busy bus routes often suffer from buses not arriving at regular intervals but in bunches at bus stops. In this paper we study this bus bunching phenomenon and address it by a combination of data-driven headway prediction and dynamic holding strategies, which allow to modulate buses' dwell times at stops to reduce the headway deviation. We formulate time headways as time series and compare several prediction methods by testing on data from a busy bus route in Dublin. Furthermore we review and extend an analytical model of an artificial bus route and discuss stability properties and dynamic holding strategies using both data available at the time and predicted headway data. In a numerical simulation we illustrate how the combination of two simple concepts lead to a promising strategy to reduce bus bunching.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Transportation Research Part B: Methodological - Volume 104, October 2017, Pages 123-148
نویسندگان
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