Anticipating the use of future things: Towards a framework for prospective use analysis in innovation design projects

Anticipation of future product use is a persistent issue in User-Centered Design. In this paper, we argue that one obstacle to early integration of use analysis in innovation design is overreliance on retrospective use analysis, i.e. that which is based on clear references to existing products or activities. In contrast, innovation design projects are full of uncertainty, leading to a need for prospective analysis. After having described some limitations of prospective use analysis, we contend that creativity tools may be used to assist the anticipation of future product use, by allowing designers to approach the variability of situations of future use in a structured manner rather than by “muddling through”. We illustrate the expected benefits of this approach with two case studies, and describe some prospects for future research and practice in ergonomics.