On the statistical identification of technology disruption

This study suggests a statistical procedure to identify technology disruption. In particular, a threshold autoregressive model enables the identification of threshold penetration for disruptive technology that affects the dynamic adjustment of an established technology. Both the magnitude and direction of the impact is identified by country World Bank income category in the context of the impact of (disruptive) mobile telephone diffusion on (primary) fixed-line markets. Importantly, as the procedure only requires a short time-series for the introduced technology and can readily be conducted on an ongoing basis.

► The paper applies time-series methods to fixed-line penetration data.
► Modelling provides a description of these data and identifies technology disruption.
► Regime changes are characterised.
► Foresight gains are realised.