Safety modeling of suburban arterials in Shanghai, China

• Hierarchical Bayesian models were developed for total crashes for 161 road segments of eight suburban arterials in Shanghai.
• Bivariate hierarchical Bayesian models were developed for minor injury and severe injury to account for the correlation among different severity levels.
• The density of signal spacing along arterials has a significant influence on the three categories of crash frequencies.
• The non-uniform signal spacing has a significant impact on the occurrence of minor injury crashes.
• Higher crash frequencies tend to occur for the segments with curves, with a higher density of access points, with a higher percentage of heavy vehicles.

As urbanization accelerates in Shanghai, land continues to develop along suburban arterials which results in more access points along the roadways and more congested suburban arterials; all these changes have led to deterioration in traffic safety. In-depth safety analysis is needed to understand the relationship between roadway geometric design, access features, traffic characteristics, and safety. This study examined 161 road segments (each between two adjacent signalized intersections) of eight suburban arterials in Shanghai. Information on signal spacing, geometric design, access features, traffic characteristics, and surrounding area types were collected. The effect of these factors on total crash occurrence was investigated. To account for the hierarchical data structure, hierarchical Bayesian models were developed for total crashes. To identify diverse effects on different crash injury severity, the total crashes were separated into minor injury and severe injury crashes. Bivariate hierarchical Bayesian models were developed for minor injury and severe injury to account for the correlation among different severity levels. The modeling results show that the density of signal spacing along arterials has a significant influence on minor injury, severe injury, and total crash frequencies. The non-uniform signal spacing has a significant impact on the occurrence of minor injury crashes. At the segment-level, higher frequencies of minor injury, severe injury, and total crashes tend to occur for the segments with curves, those with a higher density of access points, those with a higher percentage of heavy vehicles, and those in inner suburban areas. This study is useful for applications such as related engineering safety improvements and making access management policy.