The effect of traffic tickets on road traffic crashes

• The study tests the effect of traffic tickets issued to drivers on subsequent crashes.
• The dataset merged Israeli census data with data on traffic tickets and crashes.
• Most crashes involved drivers who received up to one ticket on average per year.
• The number of tickets was strongly associated with subsequent crashes.
• Drivers with one ticket/year had 65% higher crash odds than drivers with no tickets.

Road traffic crashes are globally a leading cause of death. The current study tests the effect of traffic tickets issued to drivers on subsequent crashes, using a unique dataset that overcomes some shortcomings of previous studies. The study takes advantage of a national longitudinal dataset at the individual level that merges Israeli census data with data on traffic tickets issued by the police and official data on involvement in road traffic crashes over seven years. The results show that the estimated probability of involvement in a subsequent fatal or severe crash was more than eleven times higher for drivers with six traffic tickets per year compared to those with one ticket per year, while controlling for various confounders. However, the majority of fatal and severe crashes involved the larger population of drivers who received up to one ticket on average per year. The current findings indicate that reducing traffic violations may contribute significantly to crash and injury reduction. In addition, mass random enforcement programs may be more effective in reducing fatal and severe crashes than targeting high-risk recidivist drivers.