Original Research ArticleSimulating bark beetle population dynamics in response to windthrow events

- We extended an ABM of bark beetle infestation behaviour in response to windthrow.
- We examined how windthrow events impact beetle population size and tree mortality.
- Increasing extent slows the transition from endemic to epidemic beetle population.
- Scattered clusters facilitate beetle aggregation and infestation of healthy trees.

The relationship between windthrow disturbance and outbreaks of European spruce bark beetle Ips typographus L. in European Norway spruce forests has been the focus of recent studies. However, the nature in which the spatial characteristics of windthrow events influence bark beetle population dynamics is rarely examined. This represents a significant gap in the literature, as our understanding of how spatial windthrow patterns influence bark beetles can be useful for management efforts to help mitigate large-scale bark beetle disturbance. The objective of this study is to simulate how windthrow events facilitate bark beetle population state transitions from endemic and epidemic levels using a spatially explicit agent-based model. We examined how the spatial extent of windthrow events and the size of tree clusters impacted by windthrow influence this state transition. The results show that the beetle population transition slows with increasing spatial extent of a windthrow event and with larger clusters of windthrown trees, while scattered patterns of windthrown trees accelerate the timing of this transition. This study contributes to our understanding of the role of large-scale wind disturbance in European bark beetle outbreaks. Moreover, it provides a basis for further research to discover the impact of potential forest management applications aiming to mitigate the risk of bark beetle outbreaks.

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