Original research articleExploring the compass of potential changes induced by climate warming in plant communities

- We explore the potential climate-driven dynamics in an alpine vegetation community.
- Indirect effects can surmount direct effects induced by global warming.
- Timing of species reactions resulted in an important driver of community dynamics.
- The new community configuration could be unexpected and counter-intuitive.
- Parsimonious models can explore the range of potential changes in plant communities.

New models are required to predict the impacts of future climate change on biodiversity. A move must be made away from individual models of single species toward approaches with synergistically interacting species. The focus should be on indirect effects due to biotic interactions. Here we propose a new parsimonious approach to simulate direct and indirect effects of global warming on plant communities. The methodology consists of five steps: a) field survey of species abundances, b) quantitative assessment of species co-occurrences, c) assignment of a theorised effect of increased temperature on each species, d) creation of a community model to project community dynamics, and e) exploration of the potential range of temperature change effects on plant communities.We explored the possible climate-driven dynamics in an alpine vegetation community and gained insights into the role of biotic interactions as determinants of plant species response to climate change at local scale. The study area was the uppermost portion of Alpe delle Tre Potenze (Northern Apennines, Italy) from 1500 m up to the summit at 1940 m.Our work shows that: 1) unexpected climate-driven dynamics can emerge, 2) interactive communities with indirect effects among species can overcome direct effects induced by global warming; 3) if just one or few species react to global warming the new community configuration could be unexpected and counter-intuitive; 4) timing of species reactions to global warming is an important driver of community dynamics; 5) using simulation models with a limited amount of data in input, it is possible to explore the full range of potential changes in plant communities induced by climate warming.