FloMan-MF: Floodplain Management for the Moor Frog − a simulation model for amphibian conservation in dynamic wetlands

- We developed a spatially explicit individual-based model of the moor frog (Rana arvalis) in the Middle Elbe floodplain, Germany.
- The model combines three dynamic systems: hydrological landscape dynamics; temporal variability in species habitat use; and demographic population development based on information from the literature, empirical findings, and habitat model results.
- The model simulates species response (distribution and population size) to habitat changes and can thus be applied for environmental impact assessments.
- Predicting or estimating the effectiveness of modified reproduction sites is a useful and important tool for amphibian conservation management within the context of floodplain management.
- FloMan-MF can be adapted to other amphibian species (e.g. to FloMan-AM) and to any kind of dynamic wetland in temperate regions.

We present a modeling approach to assess the impact of different conservation management options on the population dynamics of the moor frog (Rana arvalis, Amphibia, Anura) in dynamic river floodplains. The model is targeted at supporting amphibian conservation actions within floodplain management efforts for human flood protection. FloMan-MF is an individual-based, spatially explicit simulation model that combines three aspects: the hydrological dynamics of the landscape influenced by floods, frog reproductive behavior modeled through migration and selection of suitable reproduction sites (ponds), and population structure and trajectory over time. We validated each of the three systems and applied the baseline scenario to a two-year case study conducted in the Middle Elbe River floodplain (Germany). The FloMan-MF model aims to identify suitable compositions of floodplain ponds and habitat characteristics to optimize the reproductive habitat for moor frogs in a degraded floodplain. Therefore, to show potential applications of the model, we simulated floodplain habitat degradation and five different management scenarios. The population responded differently to each of the simulated management actions, ranging from rapid extinction to recovery with low numbers of individuals. The partly unexpected results reveal complex interactions in species-habitat interactions over time. According to our results, the establishment of dynamic temporary ponds seems to be a basic condition for population persistence of this species and can be realized within floodplain management activities. Extending the rationale and basic design of FloMan-MF to other amphibian species living in floodplains is straightforward.