Effect of driver’s age and side of impact on crash severity along urban freeways: A mixed logit approach

• We model injury severity on urban freeways in Florida using the mixed logit model.
• The mixed logit model is compared to the binary logit model.
• The random forest technique is introduced before fitting the mixed logit model.
• The mixed logit model outperformed the binary logit model.
• Back, left, and right impacts had the highest risk among middle-aged drivers.

IntroductionThis study identifies geometric, traffic, environmental, vehicle-related, and driver-related predictors of crash injury severity on urban freeways.MethodThe study takes advantage of the mixed logit model’s ability to account for unobserved effects that are difficult to quantify and may affect the model estimation, such as the driver’s reaction at the time of crash. Crashes of 5 years occurring on 89 urban freeway segments throughout the state of Florida in the United States were used. Examples of severity predictors explored include traffic volume, distance of the crash to the nearest ramp, and detailed driver’s age, vehicle types, and sides of impact. To show how the parameter estimates could vary, a binary logit model was compared with the mixed logit model.ResultsIt was found that the at-fault driver’s age, traffic volume, distance of the crash to the nearest ramp, vehicle type, side of impact, and percentage of trucks significantly influence severity on urban freeways. Additionally, young at-fault drivers were associated with a significant severity risk increase relative to other age groups. It was also observed that some variables in the binary logit model yielded illogic estimates due to ignoring the random variation of the estimation. Since the at-fault driver’s age and side of impact were significant random parameters in the mixed logit model, an in-depth investigation was performed. It was noticed that back, left, and right impacts had the highest risk among middle-aged drivers, followed by young drivers, very young drivers, and finally, old and very old drivers.Impact on IndustryTo reduce side impacts due to lane changing, two primary strategies can be recommended. The first strategy is to conduct campaigns to convey the hazardous effect of changing lanes at higher speeds. The second is to devise in-vehicle side crash avoidance systems to alert drivers of a potential crash risk.ConclusionsThe study provided a promising approach to screening the predictors before fitting the mixed logit model using the random forest technique. Furthermore, potential countermeasures were proposed to reduce the severity of impacts.