Fatality trends and projections for drivers and passengers: Differences between observed and expected fatality rates with a focus on older adults

• Vehicle fatalities have recently decreased for older adults; a remarkable result given their increased number and exposure.
• Fatalities from 1975 to 2008 were lower than expected, suggesting safety initiatives have made a positive difference.
• Recent older drivers appear to be involved in a smaller proportion of fatal crashes than their predecessors.

Using 1975–2008 data from the United States’ Fatality Analysis Reporting System, we examined fatality trends, projected future fatality trends to 2025, and estimated the number of fatalities expected if fatalities had continued to occur at the 1975 rate. Driver and passenger fatalities were stratified by sex and age group before fitting models to the data. These models were used to perform fatality projections to 2025. Using the 1975 fatality rate, we estimated the number of fatalities expected due to increased exposure to determine whether efforts to decrease fatalities were working. Results showed that, since 1975, fatalities have decreased for younger drivers and passengers and increased for middle-aged adults. Over the past 10 years, fatalities have decreased for older adults. Expected fatalities from the 1975 rate were higher than that observed for most adults. Fatalities were projected to decrease through to 2025 for younger adults, increase for middle-aged adults, and level off for older adults. A cohort effect was found for older adults, whereby from 1975 to 2008, the oldest members of the group (85–89 years) accounted for an increasingly larger proportion of fatalities. The recent decrease in older adult fatalities is remarkable given their increased number and exposure. Observed fatalities were lower than expected after controlling for increased exposure, suggesting that efforts to decrease fatalities have been effective, although further research is needed to confirm this. The cohort effect suggests recent older drivers are involved in a smaller proportion of fatal crashes than their predecessors.