A novel method of quantitative risk assessment based on grid difference of pipeline sections

• A method for quantitative risk assessment of urban natural gas pipeline network using grid difference of pipeline sections.
• Protective area according to risk acceptable criteria can provide decision support for risk management.
• The models of risk assessment for urban pipe network are integrated effectively.

The growing demand of the urban natural gas pipeline makes the security problem of in-use pipelines attract more and more concern. Risk assessment and management for urban natural gas pipeline network is the effective way to guarantee its safety running. This paper focuses on a method for quantitative risk assessment for urban natural gas pipeline network based on grid difference of pipeline sections (GDPSs), introduces the city gas pipeline network model, defines the pipeline fatal length and analyzes gas network accident probability and accident consequence of unconfined vapor cloud explosion (UVCE), fire ball combustion, jet flame. The outcome of the quantitative method is the risk contour line and then can get corresponding protective area according to risk acceptable criteria. Finally, the proposed method is applied to an urban pipe network. It is proved that is suitable for the urban natural gas pipeline network and can provide decision support for risk management of urban natural gas pipeline network.