Exposure-based assessment of the effectiveness of Michigan’s graduated driver licensing nighttime driving restriction

The objective of the study is to assess the effectiveness of Michigan’s graduated driver licensing (GDL) program in terms of nighttime driving restriction. The research uses the quasi-induced exposure technique to capture and represent the exposure and accident risk change of the impacted driver groups due to the implementation of the GDL program. Six years of Michigan accident data were used, including three years before the GDL implementation and three years after. The effectiveness of Michigan’s GDL program in terms of nighttime driving is reflected in several dimensions: for the impacted drivers (16- and 17-year-olds), there is a significant reduction of exposure compared to the reference group and a decrease in the relative accident involvement ratio (thus a reduced accident risk); and examination of time of day distributions of impacted teenage drivers shows that there is a conspicuous percentage drop of impacted teenage drivers at the point where the nighttime curfew starts. With the implementation of the GDL program, the affected group tends to drive increasingly more in the several hours prior to the restricted time period to avoid violating the curfew law. As opposed to the traditional exposure measurements such as population or licensed drivers, quasi-induced exposure technique has the capability of depicting the accident propensity and quantifying exposure change from different age groups.

Research highlights
► Quasi-induced exposure can measure exposure reduction of non-responsible teen drivers.
► A critical percentage drop is observed at where the GDL curfew starts to take effect.
► The accident risk disaggregated by time of day appears to be reduced under post-GDL.