Selection of a relevant indicator – Road casualty risk based on final outcomes

There are no dilemmas among the academics and experts whether it is important and necessary to analyze the road casualty risk. The road casualty risk analysis is a very efficient way of filtering the most dangerous sections, roads or specific territories. In previous analyses of road safety in Serbia, a value and type of a specific risk according to the size of the observed area (state, region, district, municipality), section length or the importance of a road category, were not explicitly determined. Differences in values of the analyzed parameters could be expressed to such an extent that the acquired values of differences, among some of the units that are being observed, represent range divided into risk bands. These differences are primarily the result of the severity of injuries and types of accidents used for calculating individual risk categories. In this paper, a model for selection of an “acceptable” risk in selected municipalities in Serbia is presented. Here presented model will be used for future researches and final assessments of the state of road safety, i.e. for the reliable risk mapping of the Serbian municipalities. The practical contribution of the risk analysis is in defining a reliable way of choosing acceptable final outcomes – rates for a defined unit of observation.

► Based on final outcomes we made a model for selection of a relevant indicator.
► As an example the road accidents data for Serbian municipalities has been used.
► We made a selection of just one risk for risk mapping.
► The analysis has been done by calculating the value of linear correlation.
► The highest value of correlation is rate based on weighted number of casualties.