کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
589940 878727 2010 10 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Enhancing road safety through early detection of outbreaks in the frequency of motor vehicle crashes
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه مهندسی شیمی بهداشت و امنیت شیمی
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
Enhancing road safety through early detection of outbreaks in the frequency of motor vehicle crashes
چکیده انگلیسی

Methods for detecting outbreaks in the frequency of particular human-related phenomena have typically monitored daily counts for geographical regions. However, age can also be a significant factor in the frequency distribution of particular phenomena. Using data relating to motor vehicle crashes on public roads, this paper offers a methodology for detecting outbreaks that are age group clustered. The transitional Poisson regression model is used to provide day-ahead forecasts (expected values) for daily crash counts across different age groups. Standardized smoothed count departures from their smoothed day-ahead forecasts across all age groups are used to detect systematic outbreaks. The CUSUM of sequential age group standardized scores is used to signal outbreaks that are age-clustered. Potential applications of the developed methodology include early detection of age-related epidemics and unusual increases in work-related accidents.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Safety Science - Volume 48, Issue 2, February 2010, Pages 135–144
نویسندگان
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