Predicting the material loss around a hole due to sand erosion

► We study the long-term erosion characteristics on the surface around a central hole in a flat aluminium plate by impacting it with dilute silica sand suspended in ambient air at 80 m/s. ► We predict the erosion with computational fluid dynamics (CFD) incorporating an empirical erosion sub-model. ► Accounting for an initial incubation period improves the accuracy of the CFD erosion depth prediction on the shoulder of the hole to within 30% of the experimental data.